A YEAR OF DELAYED HARVESTS. THE first half of 1907 will be notable in agricultural annals for its unseasonable weather, the uncertainty of its crop outlook, its delayed harvests. Naturally the present harvest interest of the United States concerns wheat, now being gathered over the southern half of approximately 45,000,000 acres sown in this country to that cereal, and which shares with corn the precedence among farm products in America. Further, it is of wheat alone that production estimate can be made at this date. OLD-WORLD HARVEST DISCOURAGEMENT. boxes of parasite enemies of the grain louse were distributed in seventy counties where need was greatest. This agency, together with the unfavorable weather of May, checked the main army's northward progress, but not until it had damaged seriously the southern portion of the winter-wheat area, particularly in Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas, where thousands of acres were totally destroyed. It infested similarly southeastern Colorado, where in early June farmers plowed under much wheat because of injury to the plant. Southern Nebraska also at this date was reporting impairment of wheat from the insect's inroads. Ohio and Indiana about this time noted its presence in oat-fields, and it was reported on the western edge of Missouri. At the beginning of the growing season unfavorable conditions were manifest, not alone in America but to some degree in all the Old-World grain-raising area. In central Russia and the Danubian provinces the wheat-plant had been damaged; Germany reported wheat suffering from winter killing; southern Russia and the Balkan states had late seeding and lessened acreage because of excessive rains; interior France gave discouraging bulletins; parts of Bulgaria told of the severest winter effects in forty years, while bad weather lessened India's promise. Argentina alone seemed satisfied with cropsowing operations. European crop news became more favorable in mid-June, when needed rains broke droughts in Russia and some other parts of Europe, but the wheat situation continued below normal. The "green bug" is an importation, first described in Italy in 1852. In 1884 it was found in Maryland, though not in damaging numbers. In 1890 it appeared in Indiana, devastating the oats in some counties. It also in that year infested Southern wheat-field; and was recognized as a pest, its operations reaching north to latitude 39° 30'. In 1901 it appeared in Texas, lessening materially the crop yields. Then it created no anxiety until the peculiar climatic conditions of the winter As early as March, a month marked by exceptionally high temperature, throughout. the Middle-West grain-belt, the green bug's" ravages were reported from northern Texas, with the pest, fostered by the early opened spring, rapidly working into Oklahoma. By April it had reached Kansas and was damaging the southern counties of that State. A campaign of extermination was begun by the entomological department of Kansas University, assisted by millers, grain APPROXIMATE dealers, and commercial clubs. Over 12,000 I WHEAT 0 W DES MOINE LINCOLNO AUSTIN GREEN BUGS TO JUNE 12, 1907. of 1906-7 brought it into renewed general wheat seeding in the Dakotas and in the rapactivity. LATE FROSTS IN SPRING. While this injury was progressing northward, the lowest spring temperature on record was reaching down toward the Gulf in lines that surprised and discouraged farm managers. Ordinarily, mid-April ends the frost damage in the Western wheat-belt. This year freezing temperature came as late as May 27 over a large portion of that area; June 2 recorded the lowest average temperature of any June day in the books, while the average for April and May was below the average of those months in any previous season. Even in the South crop experts declare the season to have been the most "backward" since 1855. The frost-line on May 27 dipped down to the very edge of Oklahoma, overlapping the northward movement of the grain louse. One night's low temperature ruined over 500,000 acres of wheat in Kansas alone. The effect of this delay in summer's approach was twofold: First, the winter-wheat acreage, which reaches as far north as middle Nebraska, was retarded in growth, and by the final shock on May 27 was greatly impaired in the heading process; second, spring idly growing wheat territory of Western Canada was held back to an untimely date. The increased area of Western Canada farms, however, may offset to some extent the deficiency in condition, though last year's total of 120,000,000 bushels is only to be reached by very favorable conditions henceforth. SPECULATIVE MARKETS' FLUCTUATIONS. Speculative markets reflected weather vagaries in rapidly rising grain prices. July wheat options in Chicago and Kansas City were quoted: March 15. April 1 May 1.. May 15.. May 21.. June 12.. April 15. Kansas City. Chicago. 7514 7738 7184 78% 7337 81 7576 83% 861 93% 1011 904 931 844 The realization, on May 21, of the farmer's dream of "dollar wheat" followed a week of pessimistic reports of damage from frost and bugs, but it vanished when early June rains and sunshine in part had dissipated the anxiety. The Government report on June 10 was awaited with intere.t. The average condition of winter wheat in the United States on June I was given as 77.4, as compared with 82.9 a month previous; 82.7 on June 1, 1906; 85.5 on June 1, 1905, and a ten-year average of 81.1. The first report of the season on spring wheat was made, showing an average condition of 88.7, as compared with 93.4 at the corresponding date last year; 93.7 on June 1, 1905, and a ten-year average of 93.3. EXPORT DEMAND AND CHANGES. This report indicates a probable winterwheat crop in the United States of 381,000,000 bushels, compared with 492,000,000 bushels last year; of spring wheat, 255,000, 000, compared with 242,000,000 last year, making a shortage of 100,000,000 bushels compared with last year. The six-year period shows: 1907 1906. 1905. 1994. 1903. 1902. Bushels. 636,000,000 735,000,000 637,000,000 692,000,000 The significance of this is the probability 552,000,000 that the production in this country may easily 670,000,000 prove insufficient for a year's normal conLondon authorities state that the European sumption, necessitating a drain on reserve wheat shortage this year will be at least stocks and consequently higher prices for the 120,000,000 bushels, as compared with last coming twelve months. Europe has been year, even if Russia should raise as much as drawing off American wheat since August, in 1906, which is considered possible. With 1906. For the first ten months of this fiscal 100,000,000 bushels shortage in the United year Europe took 66,000,000 bushels, as States and 20,000,000 bushels deficiency in against 32,000,000 for the preceding year. Canada, a possible result of the month-late For the full fiscal year the exports of wheat, including flour in terms of wheat, will aggregate about 140,000,000 bushels, against 98,000,000 in the fiscal year 1906 and 44,000,000 in 1905. These figures suggest that the ability of the United States to contribute to the breadstuff supply of the other parts of the world is still considerable in years of normal crops, notwithstanding the growth of the consuming population and the drift of emigration from the agricultural area to the manufacturing centers. It should be remembered, however, that from last year's record-breaking crop American farmers had on hand March 1, 206,600,000 bushels, or 46,000,000 bushels more than in March, 1906; 95,000,000 bushels more than in 1905, and by far the largest quantity in two decades. This should make up for considerable deficiency. WHEAT SHORTAGE AND PROSPERITY. The economic relation of a wheat shortage to general prosperity is intimate. In each of the five years ending with June 30, 1906, this country was growing an average of 660,000,000 bushels, and exporting 140,000,000 bushels. The totals are: 1902. 1903. 1904 Crop. was plowed up because of damage from bugs or frost, corn took its place, this increased acreage probably so offsetting the corn lost at first planting that the acreage is brought practically to that of last year. Nothing can be predicted of corn until the hot winds of summer have passed and danger of early frosts in autumn is gone. The United States last year raised 2,927,000,000 bushels out of the 3,795,400,000 bushels production of the world, or over 70 per cent. Thus far the price of corn has advanced sympathetically with that of wheat, sharing the general influence of an anticipated shortage of breadstuffs, and if the crop shall realize the present fair start, it will add materially to the farmer's income. Canada, which raises only about 35,000,000 bushels, has scarcely started on its corn season. MINOR CROPS' OUTLOOK. The oats crop, which follows closely after corn and wheat in importance in this country, has an average outlook, though backward because of the cold spring, and the probabilities are for about the yield of last year. Some sections, notably those of the Middle West, where green bugs" ruined a large acreage Export. Consumption. and frosts did harm, will give small returns, but the effect is local, and may not change 467,000,000 materially the total results. Its increase of 511,000,000 500,000 acres will go far toward offsetting the decrease in general conditions. Bushels. Bushels. 514,000,000 517,000,000 748,000,000 235,000,000 670,000,000 203,000,000 638,000,000 121,000,000 .552,000,000 44,000,000 .693,000,000 98,000,000 595,000,000 Average...660,000,000 142,000,000 520,000,000 1905. 1906. If the present indication of a total yield of 636,000,000 bushels be maintained, the farmers will not make so bad a showing after all, though they may gather some 25,000,000 bushels less wheat than the average of the past six years of plenty. How large will be the margin between the total yield and the consumption demand will depend on how the spring wheat in the Northwest, not yet in the heading-out stage, comes on. It may, indeed, turn out that the full average will be upheld. CORN'S LATE start. The same climatic conditions in the United States that hampered wheat were detrimental to corn. Farmers delayed their planting, and when at last seeding was done, cold and drought held back the crop's growth until in some sections replanting was necessary. As a result, the corn crop is three weeks behind its usual condition, and over most of the corngrowing States it was in mid-June only a few inches high. In many fields where wheat Forage crops are likely to show increased acreage, taking the place of wheat and other crops that because of frosts or insects have been abandoned. Barley and rye show conditions slightly below normal, but this influence is not material in the general summing up of the farmer's outlook. HOW MUCH COTTON SHORTAGE? The prospects now are that a cotton crop of the proportions of last year is out of the question. How much less it will be is a fundamental problem in the South. The average cotton crop of the past decade has been a little over 11,000,000 bales. Last year it was 10,777,000 bales. The outlook is for something less than this, it may fall as low as 10,000,000 bales. But the milling capacity and demand are for at least 1,000,000 bales more, and the effect of a shortage would not only decrease the income of cotton growers directly (a minor consideration in the economic consideration of the matter), but would reduce the earnings of transportation companies appreciably and intensify the competition among the textile producers of the world. Each of these classes would shift as much as possible of the burden upon consumers, giving further impetus to the upward trend of cotton prices, which in seven years have increased 20 per cent. MOVING THE CROPS. No sooner will threshing begin in the Western grain-belt than the railroads will be met with the old problem of moving the crops. Last year this was a trial until midwinter, when it was followed by equal difficulty in transporting fuel and merchandise to those in need. It was explained then that wornout rolling stock and deficient trackage were largely responsible for the trouble. Whether or not these delinquencies have been remedied sufficiently to handle the present harvest remains to be seen. Railway managers doubtless are well satisfied that there is not on their hands another record-breaking yield. Taking into consideration the grain yet in farmers' hands, and the hurried movement that high prices may encourage, they are likely to have more than enough to do for many months to come. prospect for making up from foreign plenty the shortage, caused by delayed sunshine and abnormal temperature at home, is small. Europe, as has been shown, has its own crop deterioration to consider; Australia, India, and the Philippines will give no marvelous returns in food production; South America is optimistic, but the extent of its harvest is yet uncertain. Lessened bushels of grain and lacking bales of cotton mean continued high prices,-not to be beaten down, because nowhere in the world is an opulence of yield visible. The American farmer is much better off than he expected to be when ice and snow in May caused alarm. On the whole, his delayed harvest, though lessened in quantity, may give him a return almost as satisfactory in dollars and cents as some of greater volume gone before. With a wheat surplus from last year in his granaries, he is in a position to contemplate with equanimity the coming twelvemonth. The consumer may have to face a problem of increased living expense, but the farmer, even if his corn gives only a moderately satisfactory yield, will forget last spring's gloomy perspective and consider himself well treated. From this source, at least, we need anticipate no material lessening of our national AMERICAN FARMERS' GOOD FORTUNE. Good fortune appears to attend the American farmer, despite the belated season. The prosperity. THE MIDDLE WEST AND WALL STREET. BY CHARLES MOREAU HARGER. WHEN, in the early spring, reports of the Wall Street crash in stocks were wired over the country, a central Kansas banker was startled by the abrupt entrance of an agitated customer. "The bucket shop says Union Pacific has fallen twenty-one points, and the whole market has had a panic," was the visitor's an nouncement. "Is that so?" remarked the banker, in a non-committal tone, without trace of excitement, and as if there were no particular significance in the matter. He went on calmly making out twentydollar notes for John Smith and Richard Roe, secured by mortgages on their cows and horses, payable sixty days after date at 8 per cent. That was about the effect that the Wall Street flurry had on Western banks and financial interests generally. To put it bluntly: The West has about as much interest in the operations of Wall Street as it has in the gambling at Monte Carlo. It cares about as much concerning the ups and downs of the men who make and break the prices of stock-market securities as it cares concerning the operators at Monte Carlo. It looks upon Wall Street as a gambling-place, not as a business center. Ten years ago the West was afraid of Wall Street. It knew that it owed a great deal of money to the East. It feared that there might be a pressing for payment and that it could not pay. But with the coming of a series of good crops, that are yet continuing, the West began to rise above its financial difficulties; then gathered, slowly at first, but more rapidly of late, a surplus which has shown itself in increased bank deposits, better dwellings, new public structures, improvements of every sort. It ad |